|
| |
Storm
Center
FAQ
REFERENCES
- Aberson, S.D., and M. DeMaria (1994): Verification of a Nested Barotropic
Hurricane Track Forecast Model (VICBAR). _Mon. Wea. Rev._,122, 2804-2815.
- Avila, L. A., and R. J. Pasch, 1995: Atlantic tropical systems
of 1993. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 123, 887-896.
- Bender, M.A., R.J. Ross, R.E. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara (1993): Improvements in
tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts using the GFDL initialization
system. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 121, 2046-2061.
- Bengtsson, L., M. Botzet and M. Esch, (1994): Will greenhouse
gas--induced warming over the next 50 years lead to a higher frequency and
greater intensity of hurricanes? _Max--Planck--Institut fur Meteorolgie
Report No. 139_, Hamburg.
- Black, P.G., (1975): Some aspects of tropical storm structure revealed
by handheld-camera photographs from space. _Skylab Explores the Earth_,
NASA, 417-461.
- Black, P.G., (1992): Evolution of maximum wind estimates in typhoons. _ICSU/WMO
International Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Disasters_, October
12-16, 1992, Beijing.
- Black, R.A., and J. Hallett (1986): Observations of the distribution of
ice in hurricanes. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 43, 802-822.
- Bureau of Meteorology (1977): _Report by Director of Meteorology
on Cyclone Tracy, December 1974_. Bureau of Meteorology,
Melbourne, Australia, 82 pp.
- Burpee, R. W., (1972): The origin and structure of easterly waves in
the lower troposphere of North Africa. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 29, 77-90.
- Burpee, R. W., (1974): Characteristics of the North African easterly
waves during the summers of 1968 and 1969. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 31,
1556-1570.
- Chan, J.C.L. (1985): Tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific
in relation to the El Nino / Southern Oscillation phenomenon. _Mon. Wea.
Rev._, 113, 599-606.
- Chan, J. C. L. and J. Shi (1996): Long-term trends and interannual
variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific.
_Geo. Res. Letters_, 23, 2765-2767.
- Chen, S.A., and W.M. Frank (1993): A numerical study of the genesis of
extratropical convective mesovortices. Part I: Evolution and
dynamics. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 50, 2401-2426.
- DeMaria, M. and J. Kaplan (1994): A statistical hurricane intensity
prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic basin. _Wea. Forecasting_, 9,
209-220.
- Dong Keqin (1988): El Nino and tropical cyclone frequency in the
Australian region and the Northwest Pacific. _Aust. Met. Mag._, 36,
219-225.
- Dunn, G. E., 1940: Cyclogenesis in the tropical Atlantic. _Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 21, 215-229.
- Dunn, G.E. and B.I. Miller (1960): _Atlantic Hurricanes_, Louisiana
State Univ. Press, Baton Rough, Louisiana, 377 pp.
- Dunnavan, G.M. and J.W. Diercks (1980): An analysis of Sypertyphoon Tip
(October 1979). _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 180, 1915-1923.
- Dvorak, V.F., 1975: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis and forecasting
from satellite imagery. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 103, 420-430.
- Dvorak, V.F., 1984: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite
data. _NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 11_, 47 pp.
- Emanuel, K. A., (1986): An air-sea interaction theory for tropical
cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. _J. Atmos. Sci._,
43, 585-604.
- Emanuel, K. A., (1987): The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate.
_Nature_, 326, 483-485.
- Emanuel, K.A. (1993): The physics of tropical cyclogenesis over the
Eastern Pacific. _Tropical Cyclone Disasters_. J. Lighthill, Z.
Zhemin, G. J. Holland, K. Emanuel, (Eds.), Peking University Press, Beijing,
136-142.
- Emanuel, K. A., (1995): Comments on ``Global climate change and
tropical cyclones": Part I. _Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc._, 76,
2241-2243.
- Ernest and Matson (1983): A Mediterranean tropical storm?, _Weather_,
332-337.
- Fiorino, M., J.S. Goerss, J.J. Jensen, E.J. Harrison, Jr. (1993): An
evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy
operations global atmospheric prediction system in the western North
Pacific. _Wea. Forecasting_, 8, 3-24.
- Fitzpatrick, P.J., J.A. Knaff, C.W. Landsea, and S.V. Finley (1995): A
systematic bias in the Aviation model's forecast of the Atlantic tropical upper
tropospheric trough: Implications for tropical cyclone forecasting. _Wea.
Forecasting_, 10, 433-446.
- Gray, W.M. (1968): A global view of the origin of tropical disturbances
and storms. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 96, 669-700.
- Gray, W.M. (1979): Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and
likely role in the tropical circulation. _Meteorology Over Tropical
Oceans_. D. B. Shaw (Ed.), Roy. Meteor. Soc., James Glaisher House,
Grenville Place, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 1BX, 155-218.
- Gray, W.M. (1984a): Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency: Part
I. El Nino and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. _Mon. Wea.
Rev._, 112, 1649-1668.
- Gray, W.M. (1984b): Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency: Part
II. Forecasting its variability. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 112, 1669-1683.
- Gray, W. M. (1990): Strong association between West African rainfall
and US landfall of intense hurricanes. _Science_, 249, 1251-1256.
- Gray, W.M. (1991): Comments on "Gradient balance in tropical
cyclones".J. Atmos. Sci._, 48, 1201-1208.
- Gray, W.M., W.M. Frank, M.L. Corrin, C.A. Stokes (1976): Weather
modification by carbon dust absorption of solar energy. _J. Appl.
Meteor._, 15, 355-386.
- Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry (1992): Predicting
Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. _Wea.
Forecasting, 7, 440-455.
- Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry (1993): Predicting
Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August._Wea. Forecasting_, 8,
73-86.
- Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry (1994): Predicting
Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June. Wea. Forecasting_, 9,
103-115.
- Gray, W.M., and D. Shea (1973): The hurricane's inner-core region. Part
II: Thermal stability and dynamic characteristics. _J. Atmos. Sci._,
30, 1544-1564.
- Hawkins, H.F., and D.T. Rubsam (1968): Hurricane Hilda, 1964. II
Structure and budgets of the hurricane on October 1 1964. _Mon. Wea.
Rev._, 104, 418-442.
- Hebert, P.J., J.D. Jarrell, and M. Mayfield (1997): The deadliest,
costliest, and most intense United States hurricanes of this century (and other
frequently requested hurricane facts). _NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS TPC-1_,
Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, Florida, 30
pp.
- Henderson-Sellers, A., H. Zhang, G. Berz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G.
Holland, J. Lighthill, S-L. Shieh, P. Webster, K. McGuffie, (1998):
Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment.
_Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc._, 79, 19-38.
- Holland, G.J. (1993): "Ready Reckoner" - Chapter 9, _Global
Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting_, WMO/TC-No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, World
Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
- Holland, G. J., (1997): The maximum potential intensity of tropical
cyclones. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 54, 2519-2541.
- Holliday, C.R., (1973): Record 12 and 24 hour deepening rates in a
tropical cyclone. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 101, 112-114.
- Houghton, J. T., L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A.
Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, Eds., (1996): _Climate Change 1995: The
Science of Climate Change._ Contribution of WGI to the Second Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change_. Cambridge
University Press, New York, 572 pp.
- Houghton, J. T., B. A. Callander and S. K. Varney, Eds. (1992): _Climate
Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment_.
Cambridge University Press, New York.
- Houghton, J. T., G. J. Jenkins and J. J. Ephramus, Eds. (1990): _Climate
Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment_. Cambridge University Press, New
York.
- Jarvinen, B.R., and C.J. Neumann (1979): Statistical forecast of
tropical cyclone intensity. _NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-10_, 22 pp.
- Knutson, T. R., R. E. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara (1998): Simulated
increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate. _Science_, 279,
1018-1020.
- Lander, M. (1994): An exploratory analysis of the relationship between
tropical storm formation in the Western North Pacific and ENSO. _Mon. Wea.
Rev._, 122, 636-651.
- Landsea, C.W. (1993): A climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic
hurricanes. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 121, 1703-1713.
- Landsea, C.W. and W.M. Gray (1992): The strong association between
Western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate_,
5, 435-453.
- Landsea, C.W., W.M. Gray, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry (1994):
Seasonal forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity. _Weather_, 49,
273-284.
- Landsea, C.W., N. Nicholls, W.M. Gray, and L.A. Avila (1996): Downward trends
in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five
decades. _Geo. Res. Letters_, 23, 1697-1700.
- Lord, S.J. (1993): Recent developments in tropical cyclone track
forecasting with the NMC global analysis and forecast system. Preprints of
the 20th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology_, San Antonio, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 290-291.
- Lyons, W.A., and C. S. Keen (1994): Observations of lightning in
convective supercells within tropical storms and hurricanes. _Mon. Wea.
Rev._, 122, 1897-1916.
- Marks, D.G. (1992): The beta and advection model for hurricane track
forecasting. _NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC 70_, Natl. Meteorological Center,
Camp Springs, Maryland, 89 pp.
- Martin, J.D., and W.M. Gray (1993): Tropical cyclone observation and
forecasting with and without aircraft reconnaissance. _Wea. Forecasting_,
8, 519-532.
- Mathur, M.B. (1991): The National Meteorological Center's
quasi-Lagrangian model for hurricane prediction. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 119,
1419-1447.
- Mayengon, R. (1984): Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean, _Mar. Weather
Log_, 28, 6-9
- McAdie, C.J. (1991): A comparison of tropical cyclone track forecasts
produced by NHC90 and an alternate version (NHC90A) during the 1990 hurricane
season. _Preprints of the 19th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology_, Miami, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 290-294.
- McAdie, C.J. and E.N. Rappaport (1991): _Diagnostic Report of the
National Hurricane Center_, Vol. 4, No. 1, NOAA, National Hurricane Center,
Coral Gables, FL, 45 pp.
- Merrill, R.T. (1980): A statistical tropical cyclone motion forecasting
system for the Gulf of Mexico. _NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 14_, 21 pp.
- Molinari, J., P.K. Moore, V.P. Idone, R.W. Henderson, and A.B. Saljoughy
(1994): Cloud-to-ground lightning in Hurricane Andrew. _J. Geophys.
Res._, 16665-16676.
- Neumann, C.J. (1972): An alternative to the HURRAN tropical cyclone
forecast system. _NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62_, 22 pp.
- Neumann, C.J. (1993): "Global Overview" - Chapter 1, _Global
Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting_, WMO/TC-No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, World
Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
- Neumann, C.J., B.R. Jarvinen, C.J. McAdie, and J.D. Elms (1993):
_Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1992_, Prepared by the
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, in cooperation with the National
Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, FL, 193pp.
- Nicholls, N. (1979): A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical
cyclone activity in the Australian region. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 107,
1221-1224.
- Nicholls, N. (1992): Recent performance of a method for forecasting
Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity. _Aust. Met. Mag._, 40,
105-110.
- Nicholls, N., C. W. Landsea, and J. Gill (1998): Recent trends in
Australian tropical cyclone activity. _Met. Atmos. Phys._, 65,
197-205.
- Novlan, D.J. and W.M. Gray (1974): Hurricane-spawned tornadoes. _Mon.
Wea. Rev._, 102, 476-488.
- Pan, Y. (1981): the effect of the thermal state of eastern equatorial
Pacific on the frequency typhoons over western Pacific. _Acta Meteor.
Sin._, 40, 24-32 (in Chinese).
- Pielke, Jr. R. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: Normalized Atlantic
hurricane damage, 1925-1995. _Wea. Forecasting_, 13, 621-631.
- Powell, M.D., and S.H. Houston, 1996: Hurricane Andrew's wind field at
landfall in South Florida. Part II: Applications to real-time analysis and
preliminary damage assessment. _Wea. Forecasting_, 11, 329-349.
- Radford, A.M. (1994): Forecasting the movement of tropical cyclones at
the Met. Office. _Met. Apps._, 1, 355-363.
- Revell, C.G. and S.W. Goulter (1986): South Pacific tropical cyclones
and the Southern Oscillation. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 114, 1138-1145.
- Riehl, H., 1945: Waves in the easterlies and the polar front in the
tropics. Misc. Rep., No. 17, Department of Meteorology, University of
Chicago, 79 pp.
- Royer J.-F., F. Chauvin, B. Timbal, P. Araspin, and D. Grimal, 1998: A GCM
study of the impact of green house gas increase on the frequency of occurrence
of tropical cyclones, _Clim. Dyn_., 38, 307-343.
- Ryan, B. F., I. G. Watterson and J. L. Evans, (1992): Tropical cyclone
frequencies inferred from Gray's yearly genesis parameter: Validation of GCM
tropical climates. _Geophys. Res. Letters_, 19, 1831-1834.
- Samsury, C.E., and R.E. Orville, 1994: Cloud-to-ground lightning in
tropical cyclones: A study of Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and Jerry (1989).
Mon. Wea. Rev._, 122, 1887-1896.
- Schroeder, T.A. and Z. Yu (1995): Interannual variability of central
Pacific tropical cyclones. _Preprints of the 21st Conference on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology_, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Miami, Florida, 437-439.
- Sheets, R.C. (1990): The National Hurricane Center -- Past, Present,
and Future. _Wea. Forecasting_, 5, 185-232.
- Simpson, R.H. and H. Riehl (1981): _The Hurricane and Its Impact_.
Louisiana State Univ. Press, Baton Rouge (IBSN 0-8071-0688-7), 398 pp.
- Simpson, R.H. and J. Simpson (1966): Why experiment of tropical
hurricanes? _Trans. New York Acad. Sci., 28, 1045-1062.
- Tuleya, R.E. (1994): Tropical storm development and decay:
Sensitivity to surface boundary conditions. _Mon. Wea. Rev._, 122,
291-304.
- Tuleya, R.E. and Y. Kurihara (1978): A numerical simulation of the
landfall of tropical cyclones. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 35, 242-257.
- Velasco, I., and J.M. Fritsch (1987): Mesoscale convective complexes in
the Americas. _J. Geophys. Res._, 92, 9561-9613.
- Weatherford, C. and W.M. Gray (1988): Typhoon structure as revealed by
aircraft reconnaissance. Part II: Structural variability.
_Mon. Wea. Rev._, 116, 1044-1056.
- Whittingham, H.E., (1958): The Bathurst Bay Hurricane and associated
storm surge. _Aust. Met. Mag._, 23, 14-36.
- Willoughby, H.E. (1979): Forced secondary circulations in
hurricanes. _J. Geophys. Res._, 84, 3173-3183.
- Willoughby, H.E. (1990a): Temporal changes of the primary circulation
in tropical cyclones. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 47, 242-264.
- Willoughby, H.E. (1990b): Gradient balance in tropical cyclones. J.
Atmos. Sci._, 47, 265-274.
- Willoughby, H.E. (1991): Reply. _J. Atmos. Sci._, 48, 1209-1212.
- Willoughby, H.E. (1995): Mature structure and evolution. _Global
Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones_, R.L. Elsberry (ed.). World Meteorological
Organization, Report No. TCP-38, Geneva, 62 pp.
- Willoughby, H.E., J.A. Clos, and M.G. Shoreibah (1982): Concentric eye
walls, secondary wind maxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex.
_J. Atmos. Sci._, 39, 395-411.
- Willoughby, H.E., D.P. Jorgensen, R.A. Black, and S.L. Rosenthal (1985):
Project STORMFURY: A scientific chronicle 1962-1983. _Bull.
Amer.Meteor. Soc._, 66, cover and 505-514.
- Willoughby, H.E., J.M. Masters, and C.W. Landsea (1989): A record
minimum sea level pressure observed in Hurricane Gilbert. _Mon. Wea.
Rev._, 117, 2824-2828.
- Zehr, R.M. (1992): Tropical cyclogenesis in the western North
Pacific. _NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 61_, U. S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20233, 181 pp.


• Home • General Prep • Tropical Weather • Watch Conditions • Warning Condition • Aftermath • Storm Centre • Hurricane FAQ • Glossary •
Last Revised: November 01, 2006 04:09 PM. |